Análise de risco econômico da produção de açaizeiro irrigado no município de Castanhal-Pa

Abstract

The açaizeiro (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) is a palm tree of great socioeconomic relevance for the Amazon populations, the state of Pará concentrates a significant part of the national production of its fruits, through extractivism and, currently, in a more intense way by commercial cultivation on dry land using irrigation, however, management of this technique for this species needs to be improved, especially on the economic viability considering the changes of the market. Thus, the study aimed to analyze the economic risk in the production of açaí palm cultivated on dry land, with different water availability, in the municipality of Castanhal, northeastern Pará state. The experiment was conducted in the years 2018 and 2019 in a commercial plantation of the cultivar BRS-Pará with a total area of 0.6 ha, with planting density of 4 X 4, managed in 3 spikes per clump. The experimental arrangement was entirely randomized, with two treatments, which were rainfed (TS) and irrigated (IT) by micro-sprinklers, the blade of water was applied daily during the months of lower rainfall volume as a function of 100% of reference evapotranspiration (FAO 56). A 17 m high automatic micrometeorological tower was installed in the area with sensors for air temperature and relative humidity, rainfall and soil moisture. The fruit yield was monitored in 24 plants of each treatment, the student’s test was applied at 5% probability to evaluate this parameter. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit-cost ratio (B/C) and break-even point (BP), for evaluation of the pessimistic scenario, and for risk analysis a 30% increase in input costs was applied. The study found that productivity in the irrigated treatment was higher in both experimental years than in the rainfed one, on average, a difference of 35.40%. In the real scenario, both treatments presented economic viability, the TS had NPV of R$ 6,836.01, IRR of 21.35%, B/C ratio of 1.19 and PN of 2.20 t ha-1 , and the IT presented NPV of 20,090.80, IRR of 31.84%, B/C ratio of 1.51 and PN of 2.52 t ha-1 . In the pessimistic scenario, the TI remained viable, but the TS became unviable, as it had a NPV of R$ -1,879.57 and a B/C ratio of 0.96. In this way, irrigated açaí groves present higher productivity than rainfed crops, which reflects in higher profitability. The use of irrigation also ensures greater investment security, since there is less risk of fluctuations in input market costs.